Bitcoin now added to Google’s currency conversion list!!

Bitcoin is the currency of the Internet: a distributed, worldwide, .... Although I heard bitcoin was added as a crypto currency on coin base so that's a step ...

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Kyle Bass: “Today’s Market Resembles The 1987 Debacle On Steroids”

The US stock market celebrated the 30th anniversary of Black Monday with the 2017 version of a rocky trading day: Stocks sold off early, with S&P 500 futures recording their steepest post-midnight drop of the year. But the dip was reflexively and aggressively bought, and stocks even poked back into the green seconds before the close as algos mistook a repetitive Politico headline about Jay Powell’s chances of becoming the next Fed chair for news - leaving us with yet another record close.

Of course, the historical juxtaposition of the 1987 crash with today’s unnaturally placid markets practically forced even the most bullish of traders to question how much longer the present market paradigm - where markets listlessly drift through a seemingly interminable series of record highs while trading volume and volatility remain suppressed - can possibly last.

With that question in mind, Real Vision released a video early today containing interviews with some of the biggest names in the hedge fund universe. Though the interview was shot a few weeks ago, remarks from Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass resonated with market's mood.

Bass discussed what he sees as the many short- and long-term risks to the US equity market, including the rise of algorithmic trading and passive investment, which have enabled investors to take risks without understanding what they’re doing, leaving the market vulnerable to an “air pocket."

And with  so many traders short vol, Bass said investors will know the correction has begun when a 4% or 5% drop in equities snowballs into a 10% to 15% decline at the drop of a hat.

“The shift from active to passive means that risk is in the hands of people who don’t know how to take risk. Therefore we’re likely to have a 1987 air pocket. This is like portfolio insurance on steroids, the way algorithmic trading is now running the market place.

 

Investors are moving from active to passive, meaning they’re taking the wheel themselves all at a time when CTAs are running their own algo strategies where they’re one and a half times long and half short and they all believe they can come out at the same time."

 

“If you see the equity market crack 4 or 5 points, buckle up, because I think we’re going to see a pretty interesting air-pocket, and I don’t think investors are ready for that,” Bass said.

When it comes to identifying potential catalysts, Bass said the US’s deteriorating relationships with both China and North Korea present significant long-term risks...

“Our trade relationship with China is worsening our relationship with north korea whatever it is continually worsens. We’ve got three people at the head of these countries that are trying ot maike their countries great again, I think that’s a real risk geopolitically."

...While the unwind of G-4 central bank stimulus could hammer equities and bonds in the short term.

"But when you think about it financially, which is actually easier to calculate, the financial reason is the G-4 central banks going from a period of accommodation to a period of tightening, and that’s net of bond issuance."

In summary, investors better snap up those out-of-the-money S&P 500 puts before it’s too late, because central banks - try as they might - can’t forestall the return of volatility forever.

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Friday’s Finish Line

Friday’s Finish Line

US equities put in another stellar session hitting the trifecta as all three major indexes ( DJIA, SPX and NASDAQ) synchronously closed at record highs. Likewise, the USD closed the week on a very optimistic note as positive investor sentiment was grounded in the Senate’s passage of the budget resolution, clearing a significant hurdle and moving the GOP closer to tax reform. Now it’s off to the Congress, but this time around, Trump is very confident The House will pass the resolution, eager to put tax reform behind them

The Fed Chair race remained in focus, but traders are finding it challenging getting off the merry go round after Trump made clear his three top choices are Powel, Taylor and Yellen on Friday. But never the one to miss an opportunity to stir the pot, when asked if Trump could have  Powell-Taylor as co-chairs, he said it could be an option. While Powell and Taylor remain the odds-on market favourites, we do know that the President prefers lower rates and a softer US dollar, perhaps forgetting Yellen could prove to be a huge mistake.

FX markets remain choppy with traders reacting to headlines, rumours and at times engaged in a flight of fancy, not allowing the facts to get in the way. But this is more or less typical of trading in politically charged markets where risk quantification is a guessing game at best. But no rest for the weary as politically, it will be a huge week not only for the dollar but the weekend noise from Catalonia, and the Japanese election could make for a rousing start on Monday if the unexpected comes to fruition.

Even if you view the Catalan conflict as inconsequential to the long-term EUR view, headline noise can produce an outsized currency move at the Monday open due to thin liquidity conditions so best be nimble best be quick. But in reality, the primary focus for EURO traders is the ECB meeting on the 26th

PM Shinzo Abe is mostly expected to return to power with a comfortable majority. Given this likely scenario and effervescent risk environment, we should see a move higher on USDJPY as the market prices in short to medium term weaker JPY. His victory all but assures more fiscal stimulus in Japan including a JPY2trn budgetary spending package to ensure the next tax increase slated for 2019 does not result in an economic slowdown like the 2014 tax hike. Also, the Nikkie will continue to play catch up as elections risk premiums unwind and that should provide further upside impetus to USDJPY. Granted there are no election surprises; we should expect any USDJPY dips to be hoovered up at the Monday open

In the race to the Friday Finish  line

The Canadian Dollar

The Candian dollar tumbled and fumbled its way to the finish line proving to be G-10’s worst performer on Friday as CPI, and retail sales both missed the mark. Also, The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report and policy statement are due October 25. Today’s USDCAD rally indicates traders are looking for a dovish statement and no rate increase. So this wave of negativity should continue next week

The Euro

The long-awaited ECB meeting is upon us. But with the council  all but telegraphing their intentions from the mysterious ” unknown sources ‘, a lot of vol has been sucked out of this weeks meeting risk.

With that in mind, I suspect the Euro, as it did on Friday, will take its cue early next week from USD momentum.

The Japanese Yen

The market is bulled up on USDJPY for a favourable Abe election outcome as its expected his policies will continue to weaken JPY.

The New Zealand Dollar

The market has issued a vote of non-confidence for the very muddied NZ political landscape and by extension the Kiwi dollar. While political risk usually has a way of evaporating quickly, but with the NZD getting drawn into the USD vortex, we should expect a more profound current trend extension on a stronger dollar narrative.

The Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is one of the G-10 currencies with most to lose from a stronger dollar and a more hawkish Fed. The US dollar appears to be on solid footings into the weekend., but next weeks focus will be the US bond curve. Any aggressive move higher in US yields, especially if President Trump gives Taylor the nod, will put the Aussie at exceptional risk

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BlackRock Strategist: There’s No ‘Right or Wrong’ Price for Bitcoin

BlackRock Chief Investment Strategist Richard Turnill says cryptocurrencies are in a bubble right now, but that blockchain technology is promising.

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To Uber Or Not? Why Car Ownership May No Longer Be A Good Deal

Every day there’s more news about the inevitable arrival of autonomous vehicles. At the same time, more people are using ride-hailing and ride-sharing apps, and the percentage of teens getting their driver’s license continues to decline. Given these technologies and social changes, it’s worth asking: Should Americans stop owning cars? We’ve conducted an analysis of […]

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Craig Wright Inadvertently Admits He’s Not Satoshi Nakamoto

Charlie Lee tweets how Craig Wright, self-proclaimed creator of Bitcoin, inadvertently reveals he is NOT Satoshi Nakamoto. Charlie Lee, the creator of the Litecoin cryptocurrency, tweeted earlier how Craig Wright inadvertently outed himself as not actually being Satoshi Nakamoto, a role he had claimed in the past. The admission was made when Wright was confronted about not being included in a list of blockchain&#8217;s influential people, despite Satoshi Nakamoto&#8217;s name actually being on it. Craig Wright<br />Read More<br />The post Craig Wright Inadvertently Admits He&#8217;s Not Satoshi Nakamoto appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

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LedgerX Trades $1 Million in Bitcoin Derivatives in First Week

New York-based startup LedgerX has concluded a historic first week of cryptocurrency derivatives trading, reporting $1 million in exchanges.

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Cramer Remix: GE’s CEO is dismantling the company’s corporate culture

Jim Cramer’s revealing how a change could do General Electric good.

crude oil

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