التحليل الفني للنفط 12/05/2017

النفط سعر النفط اقترب من اختبار المقاومة المحورية 48.37 بالأمس وحافظ على ثباته دونها، وهذا يبقي على الضغط السلبي قائماً حتى الآن، يدعمه وصول مؤشر ستوكاستيك إلى مناطق التشبع في الشراء، بانتظار الارتداد هبوطاً لاستئناف الاتجاه الهابط الذي يتواجد هدفه الرئيسي التالي عند 44.10. لذلك، سيبقى الميل الهابط مرجحاً لهذا اليوم، مع الانتباه إلى أن اختراق […]

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NZ Dollar Falls Against Majors

The New Zealand dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday.

The NZ dollar fell to a 9-day low of 1.0804 against the Australian dollar, from yesterday’s closing value of 1.0770.

Against the euro, the U.S. dollar and the yen, the aussie dropped to 1.5912, 0.6827 and 77.69 from yesterday’s closing quotes of 1.5851, 0.6849 and 77.99, respectively.

If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.09 against the aussie, 1.60 against the euro, 0.67 against the greenback and 76.00 against the yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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BAML looks at the trends in BoP data

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on BoP trends
Bank
of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research has updated its Balance
of Payments (BoP) analysis to gauge medium-term FX trends, arguing
that such n exercise is important at this stage where markets move
beyond political risks, and fundamentals are taking over as the key FX
drivers. 

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FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 MAY

GBP/USD

As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. Despite a hint at the possible faster rate increase of interest rates in the future, the bulls were disappointed by the decline in the forecast for GDP growth this year from 2% to 1.9%.

EUR/USD

The pair continues to fall as market participants react to more aggressive actions of the FED. Despite the fact that the ECB continues its massive QE program, yesterday’s comments by Mario Draghi allude to the fact that the ECB’s position will become more hawkish in the near future.

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BoE’s Carney Sees Tougher Time for Households

Mark Carney warned that U.K. households will face a difficult year, underpinning the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates on hold. The pound fell.

While the BOE governor said policy makers have assumed the U.K.’s departure from the European Union will unfold smoothly, he noted the uncertainties surrounding that process and said real wage growth will remain weak for now.

“This is going to be a more challenging time for households,” Carney said at a press conference in London on Thursday. “Wages won’t keep up with prices for goods and services they consume.”

Sterling fell as much as 0.6 percent to the day’s lows and traded at $1.2855 at 1:19 p.m. London time.

On the upside, the Monetary Policy Committee’s published decision stated that policy makers may need to raise interest rates faster than the market suggests. Carney said he expects real wage growth will eventually pick up, but that there would be “consequences” if it doesn’t.

The MPC kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25 percent, though Kristin Forbes dissented again, voting for an immediate increase. Others said it may not take much upside news for them to switch to her position. The MPC was short one member at this decision after Charlotte Hogg left the bank, having resigned after failing to disclose a potential conflict of interest.

Fresh Outlook

The BOE also published revised economic forecasts, based on the assumption that Brexit talks don’t go awry and see the U.K. leave after the two-year negotiation period without transitional arrangements in place. The insights from the Inflation Report are the first in weeks since a snap general election called by Prime Minister Theresa May policy makers into purdah.

Carney said the bank hasn’t tried to gauge what a messier Brexit outcome would look like.

“We would have had to do an alternative forecast with some variant of a disorderly negotiating process, and we have not done that,” he said.

Officials cut their forecast for growth this year to 1.9 percent from 2 percent, though they raised it for the following two years and said expansion will remain around trend over the period. While growth slowed to 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the weakest in a year, the bank expects the figure to be revised up to 0.4 percent. Forbes said the initial reading exaggerated the extent of the slowdown.

Reflecting a weaker pound since last June’s Brexit referendum, the MPC lifted its 2017 inflation projection to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent, meaning a bigger overshoot of its 2 percent target. The bank sees a slightly weaker path further out but expects inflation to be accelerating again at the end of the three-year forecast period.

Slow-Moving

The rise in inflation entirely reflects the effects of import prices and weaker sterling, Carney said, adding that it “has been offset to some extent by the continued subdued growth in domestic costs with wage growth notably weaker than expected.”

“The medium-term inflation forecast is lower and that’s why markets have taken it as dovish,” Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank in London, said by telephone. “It signals they’re moving no time fast.”

In addition to the crucial Brexit assumption, the latest forecasts are based on a rate increase not being fully priced in until the end of 2019. In February, the curve had priced in a hike by the first quarter of that year.

Bloomberg

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Currency Snapshot (major Pairs)

Dollar index trading at 99.78 (+0.15%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.15%, Franc +0.01%, Yen +0.38%, GBP -0.52%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro -0.43%, Franc -1.52%, Yen -2.24%, GBP -0.67%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.085

Trend meter –

  • Long term – Sell, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Range

Support          

  • Long term – 1.032, Medium term – 1.05, Short term – 1.07

Resistance –

  • Long term – 1.12, Medium term – 1.10, Short term – 1.10

Economic release today –

  • NIL

Commentary –

  • The euro continues to struggle below 1.09 area, despite risk rally in equities.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.286

Trend meter –

  • Long term – Sell, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Buy

Support –

  • Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.23, Short term – 1.27

Resistance –

  • Long term – 1.32, Medium term – 1.305, Short term – 1.305

Economic release today –

  • Industrial production declined by 0.5 percent in March, up 1.4 percent from a year ago.
  • Manufacturing production declined 0.6 percent in March, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.
  • Trade deficit deteriorated to £4.9 billion in March.
  • BoE kept policy rates unchanged warned on outlook.
  • Inflation report was weaker than anticipated.

Commentary –

  • The pound declined sharply after weaker than expected industrial production and trade balance as BoE warns on weakness ahead. BoE inflation report was also weaker than expected. We expect the pound to reach parity in the longer run.

USD/JPY –           

Trading at 113.9

Trend meter –

  • Long term – Sell, Medium term – sell, Short term – Range

Support –

  • Long term – 109, Medium term – 110, Short term – 112

Resistance –

  • Long term – 119, Medium term – 115, Short term – 115

Economic release today –

  • Eco Watchers’ survey outlook improved to 48.8 and current improved to 48.1

Commentary –

  • The yen reversed some of its recent loss as President Trump fired FBI chief, James Comey.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 1.009

Trend meter –

  • Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Range

Support –

  • Long term – 0.95, Medium term – 0.95, Short term – 0.98

Resistance –

  • Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.037, Short term – 1.037

Economic release today –

  • NIL

Commentary –

  • Franc weakened further below parity. Much worse performer than euro this week.  Active call -Franc might decline to 1.08 per dollar. Target extended to 1.14

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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بنك انجلترا يخفض توقعاته للنمو في المملكة المتحدة

خفض بنك انجلترا توقعاته للنمو في المملكة المتحدة هذا العام قائلا أن إنفاق القطاع العائلي يتباطأ بأكبر مما كان متوقعا. وقال أن المستهلكين يعانون من تباطؤ نمو الدخول وارتفاع التضخم، حيث يلاحظ ذلك في ضعف مبيعات التجزئة والانخفاض الحاد في تسجيلات السيارات الجديدة في ابريل/نيسان. وقد قلص البنك توقعاته للنمو ليصل إلى 1.9% من تقديراته […]

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Toronto arrives: USD/CAD battered as oil and USD offer a lift

Looks like the order books are filling up
The latest rise in USD/CAD is more about the clock than the economic calendar.
The new housing price index is a lowly, lagging indicator and it was in line with estimates. But Toronto traders are rolling in and selling the loonie (buying USD/CAD).

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