South Korea CPI Slows To 1.9% In February

Consumer prices in South Korea were up 1.9 percent on year in February, Statistics Korea said on Friday.

That exceeded forecasts for 1.7 percent and was down from 2.0 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, inflation was up 0.3 percent after gaining 0.9 percent in January.

Core CPI, which excludes food prices, added 0.2 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year after rising 0.6 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year a month earlier.

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South Korea Current Account Surplus Falls To $5.28 Billion

South Korea had a current account surplus of 5.28 billion in January, the Bank of Korea said on Friday.

That follows the $7.87 billion surplus in December.

The goods account surplus narrowed to $7.81 billion, compared to $8.19 billion in January last year.

The financial account saw an overall $4.35 billion increase in net assets in January.

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New Zealand Q4 Building Activity Climbs 1.9%

The volume of all building activity in New Zealand jumped a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

That topped forecasts for an increase of 1.5 percent and was up from 1.4 percent in the previous three months.

Residential building activity was up 1.1 percent, while non-residential building activity advanced 3.0 percent.

“Residential building activity volume growth was a bit slower than in recent quarters. While values rose in most regions, they were partly offset by a fall in Canterbury,” business indicators senior manager Neil Kelly said.

The volume trend for all building work has grown 73 percent since the most recent low point in the September 2011 quarter. It is also 19 percent higher than the series high in the June 2005 quarter.

The actual value of all building work was up 3.5 percent to NZ$5.3 billion – NZ$3.4 billion on residential buildings and NZ$1.9 billion on non-residential buildings.

The regions with the highest total values were Auckland (NZ$2.0 billion) and Canterbury (NZ$1.1 billion).

“In Auckland, the actual value of building work was almost $2 billion in the December 2016 quarter, including $1 billion worth of work on new homes,” business indicators senior manager Neil Kelly said.

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تحليلات الاسبوع- Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

S&P500

 

Monthly chart: index approaches new local high on week upper Bollinger band (2384.5). ADX is edging. That can indicate either preparation for new strong mid-term upward shot or reversal preparation. Trend scenario has an obvious advantage over reversal one.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Weekly chart: here we see resistance level at 2384.5. However, it’s worth mentioning that both indicators (RSI/ADX) are at their extremes, so we may expect correction.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Daily chart: here we have similar situation: rise along with trending ADX but against heavily overbought chart.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Expectations: breakout of 2384.5 followed by possible downside correction. However, we may also expect impulsive shot higher to the upside. That will make entry points search for selling difficult.

Solutions:

1. Consider buying to 2384.5

2. Consider selling from 2384.5 (only if there will be strong local signals at 2384.5)

Brent

Monthly chart: flat around middle Bollinger band (49.21) continues within broad range of 33.46-64.71 (Bollinger envelopes)

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Weekly chart: here we have slightly chopped but rising structure within upper Bollinger envelope range (53.25-60.49)

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Daily chart: here we have stable Bollinger envelopes inside flat corridor of 55.00-57.05. That’ll be enough for the price to remain here this week.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Expectations: flat continuation in corridor of 55.00-57.05

Solutions: trading within 55.00-57.05

Gold

Monthly chart: bulls have forced the price to upper Bollinger envelope quite aggressively and keep pushing it towards upper Bollinger band (1364.11). However, ADX is corrective, so we have no reasons to expect direct shot, the market is rather flat.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Weekly chart: there is strong local bullish pressure but also a very strong resistance level around 1314.43 (upper Bollinger band), from there the price is likely to significantly bounce down.

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Daily chart: here the price rises against the background of active ADX. We expect breakout of 1314.43!

Weekly Review. S&P500, Brent, gold

Expectations: gold quotes increase towards 1314.43.

Solutions:

1. Consider buying to 1314.43

2. Consider selling from 1314.43

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تحليلات الاسبوع- Forex Fundamental Analysis – S&P500 still has growth potential

Forecast for the week from February 27th to March 3rd:

 

XAU/USD:

Considering that important US macroeconomic statistics is scheduled for the second half of the week, I would suggest selling gold starting from Wednesday. It is better not to sell it during the first two days of the week because the situation is quite unclear. Gold may either grow to 1370 region or fall to 1240 region. I believe, the main reason for decline is strengthening of US dollar.

ISM manufacturing and non manufacturing indices may show strong data again. The indicator of positive data release on manufacturing indices is significant increase of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and New York Fed Manufacturing Index. As for Non Manufacturing indices, CB Leading needs to be pointed because at the latest release it showed increse by 1,86% per annum against 1% per annum last year. Thus, business activity boost was detected. Strong ISM data will have positive impact on dollar quotes, which is, in its turn, negative for gold quotes. Trading recommendation: On March 1st Sell with 1% take-profit order.

S&P500 still has growth potential

Brent:

Previous week oil tested upper border of six-week period. Then buyers entered the market and forced quotes down. For now fundamental factors are good enough to push quotes soon to the lower flat border (53,83). First of all, OPEC+ and Russian reduced oil output has been already put into oil quotes and third party (США) increased oil output to the 10-month highest. Previous week American oil companies have ramped up their export to new historical high which is 1,2 million barrels per day. American oil is of quite high quality, so it will be easy to find buyers.

Second of all, USDX trades stably at 100,00 and considering positive US macroeconomic statistics we may expect smooth quotes increase, as Fed claims to implement rate hike on one of the next meetings. Dollar growth has traditional negative impact on oil quotes as energy is quoted in dollars. Trading recommendation: Sell 56,30/57,60 and take profit 55,00.

S&P500 still has growth potential

S&P500:

Many media say that American stock market is on the verge of correction – 10% decline from the current historical high. We may as well see such a scenario but not this week. Now American stock market situation is positive. Broad market index trades at P/E 31, implying yield of 3.22% per annum. 10-year Treasury bonds are trading with yield of 2.32%. Thus, spread is 0.9%. For instance, two weeks ago it showed 0.73%. Indicator increase is positive for shares. We have such dynamics because of strong quarterly corporate reports. So shares still have growth potential. VIX closed previous week with moderate decline. Besides, it hasn’t renewed its year low, which is also positive for shares. Usually when VIX renews its extremes shares sale takes place. As we mentioned earlier we may expect positive ISM release this week, which will have positive impact on shares. Trading recommendation: Buy 2362/2349 and take profit 2386.

По S&P500 еще сохраняется потенциал роста

 

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تحليلات الاسبوع- Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Gold, Silver, crude oil Weekly review

Gold weekly review

Gold, Silver, crude oil Weekly review

Wave Analysis:

As previously forecasted, the yellow metal traded massively long and is still pretty much bullish both on the daily charts and the weekly charts. thus, during this week, as long as the commodity remains above 1249.70, we expect a possible bullish wave count towards 1254.06 or even higher. The anticipated upward rally should be the continuation of the impulsive wave (3) and should be extensive in nature. In the meantime, we’re waiting for minor retracements to the lower side to give us low risk buy opportunities with our previous target still intact at 1249. This commodity should be traded alongside Silver; these two commodities have a strong positive correlation of up to +87% and will have a similar price action during this trading week. Only buy or sell gold if silver is giving the same signal.
 
Trade Recommendations:
 
Expect a possible bullish price movements towards 1249 or even higher.
 
Silver weekly review
Gold, Silver, crude oil Weekly review
 

Wave Analysis:

Since December 23rd 2016, silver markets have been in a steady upward trend and is still pretty much bullish both on the daily charts and the weekly charts. As anticipated on the previous week’s forecast, silver rose incessantly to the upper side but is yet to hit our weekly target at 19.71. During this week, we expect further bullish wave count towards this target or even higher. However, in the meantime, instead of going long immediately, we choose to sit on the sidelines and only buy silver upon a clear pullback towards 17.39. The anticipated upward rally should be the continuation of the impulsive wave (3) and should be extensive in nature. This view can only be rendered futile in case the commodity end up below 12.39, if this is the case, then an acceleration to the lower side is inevitable. This commodity should be traded alongside gold, These two commodities have a strong positive correlation of up to +78% and will have a similar price action during this week. Ideally, gold drags silver along with it.
 
Trade Recommendations:
 
Expect a possible bullish price movements towards 19.71 or even higher but should not go beyond 20.33.
 
Crude oil weekly review
Gold, Silver, crude oil Weekly review

Wave Analysis:

As  previously forecasted, crude oil traded on the higher ranges but still count find enough strength to break above the resistance level 57.35.This is a key daily resistance level and will require a great force to break above, thus, unless this level is broken with a big candle, we choose to remain flat momentarily and wait for a clear reversal signal from this level to go short with an ideal target at 54.01. A break above 57.35, will culminate into a possible bullish wave count towards 67.36. A break above this level will push the price further to the the upper side but should not go beyond 112.33. This commodity should be traded alongside Canadian pairs, the price of oil affects significantly most Canadian pairs.
 
Trade Recommendations:
 
Unless there’s a clear a clear break above 57.35, remain flat momentarily and wait for a clear sell signals below 57.35.Buy positions are only recommended above  59.04
 
 

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New Zealand Building Activity Jumps 1.9%

The volume of all building activity in New Zealand climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

That topped forecasts for an increase of 1.5 percent and was up from 1.4 percent in the previous three months.

Residential building activity was up 1.1 percent, while non-residential building activity advanced 3.0 percent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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