As expected, the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 25 basis points in its March meeting. However, aside from the rate hike, there were no major changes in the FOMC forecast or statement, except for few minor tweaks. With March meeting gone, there are now seven upcoming meetings this year and the Fed has forecasted hikes in two of them. Let’s look at the market pricing of the hikes, (**note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th March)**

**May 3rd meeting:***Market is attaching***94 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, and**6 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent.

**June 14th Meeting:***Market is attaching***46 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent,**51 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, and**3 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent.**July 26th meeting:***Market is attaching***38 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent,**50 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent,**11 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and**1 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.**September 20th meeting:***Market is attaching***21 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent,**45 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent,**28 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent,**5.5 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and**0.5 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.**November 1st meeting:***Market is attaching***20 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent,**43 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent,**29 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent,**7 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and**1 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.**December 13th meeting:***Market is attaching***10 percent**probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent,**32 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent,**36 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent,**18 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent,**3.5 percent**probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and**0.5 percent**probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.

**The probability is suggesting,**

**There hasn’t been much of a change after the FOMC. The market is still pricing a hike in June and a hike in December. It is still not clear why the market is predicting two hikes in H1 and just one in H2. This is probably because the market is pricing the Fed would keep additional room for easing.****We suspect that if the price of oil tumbles further, so would be the hike odds.**

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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