Gold Yawns After Fed, BoE Rate Decisions, Fed Chair Nomination Looms

Gold has ticked higher in the Thursday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1275.93, up 0.16% on the day. On the release front, unemployment claims dropped to 229 thousand, beating the estimate of 235 thousand. The focus will be on employment numbers on Friday, as the US releases Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. We’ll also get a look at ISM Nonfarm Manufacturing PMI.

The markets weren’t expecting any fireworks from the Federal Reserve, as the November rate statement was expected to be little more than a run-up to the December rate decision. Fed policymakers signaled that a rate hike is very likely in December, and the Fed did not change the wording in the statement with regard to future rate hikes. The tone  of the statement was positive, as the Fed noted that the storms which battered the US had caused a decline in payrolls in September, but the storms were not likely to “materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.” After a excellent Advance GDP reading of 3.0%, the economy’s next test is nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In September, the indicator declined by 33 thousand, but the markets are counting on a strong rebound, with an estimate of 311 thousand for October. The markets are less bullish on wage growth, which is expected to slow to 0.2%, as inflation remains at low levels, despite strong economic growth.

The Fed remains in the spotlight, as President Trump is expected to announce later on Thursday who will succeed Janet Yellen as Fed chair when her term ends in February 2018. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is expected to get the nod from Trump. With Powell at the helm, we can expect more of the same from regarding monetary policy; namely, small incremental rate hikes, which has been the stance of the central bank since it began raising rates in December 2015.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (November 2)

  • 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual -3.0%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 235K. Actual 229K
  • 8:30 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 2.5%. Actual 3.0%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 63B. Actual 65B
  • 12:20 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks

Friday (November 3)

  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 311K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 4.2%
  • 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.5

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Thursday, November 2, 2017

XAU/USD November 2 at 12:40 EST

Open: 1274.45 High: 1284.20 Low: 1273.20 Close: 1275.93

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1213 1240 1260 1285 1307 1337
  • XAU/USD edged higher in the Asian session but retracted in the European session. The pair is showing limited movement in North American trade
  • 1260 is providing support
  • 1285 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1260 to 1285

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1260, 1240 and 1213
  • Above: 1285, 1307, 1337 and 1367

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Thursday. Currently, long positions have a majority (70%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move to higher ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The post Gold Yawns After Fed, BoE Rate Decisions, Fed Chair Nomination Looms appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

DAX Edges Lower, German Data Within Expectations

The DAX has posted considerable gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 13,442.00, down 0.21% on the day. On the release front, German numbers were within expectations. Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 60.5, just shy of the estimate of 60.6 points. Unemployment Change declined by 10 thousand, close to the estimate of -11 thousand. Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.5, close to the forecast of 58.6 points.

The DAX posted strong gains on Wednesday, climbing as high as 1.6%, before closing the session up 0.09%. This was in response to positive corporate earnings releases. Automobile sector posted strong gains, led by BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen. The DAX continues to set record highs, and has climbed 3.2% since October 23. The robust German economy has helped boost German stock markets, and with the economy expected to record a strong fourth quarter, the DAX rally could continue.

Strong manufacturing indicators in both Germany and the eurozone have boosted the eurozone economy this year. The positive trend continued in September, as Manufacturing PMIs pointed to expansion early in the fourth quarter. German Manufacturing PMI held at 60.6, its highest level since April 2011. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI isn’t far behind at 58.6, and accelerated for a third straight month. The German employment market remains robust, as unemployment rolls have declined for three straight months. Unemployment has now dropped in all but two readings since June 2015.

The markets have priced in a December rate hike in the US at 96 percent, but what can we expect in 2018? This will depend to a large degree on the new chair of the Fed, who will take over from Janet Yellen in February. Janet Yellen will wind up her 3-year term in February, and she is not expected to be reappointed by President Trump. The front runner is economist Jerome Powell, who is expected to maintain the Fed’s current policy of incremental rates. Trump is expected to make his choice on Thursday, ahead of his trip to Asia.

Economic Calendar

Thursday (November 2)

  • 4:55 German Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 60.5. Actual 60.6
  • 4:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -10K. Actual -11K
  • 5:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.6. Actual 58.5

Friday (November 3)

  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 311K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Thursday, November 2 at 7:05 EDT

Open: 13,451.50 High: 13,463.00 Low: 13,436.50 Close: 13,442.00

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The post DAX Edges Lower, German Data Within Expectations appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

November 2017 Market Outlook for Australia

Despite improvement in some economic indicators, the Australian economy’s progress lags that of most other developed countries. In view of this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its growth forecast for Australia’s economy to 2.2% in October, from the 3% projection given merely six months back. Amid such news, all eyes are on the upcoming economic indicators.

 

November 2: Australia Balance of Trade (September), UK Interest Rate Decision

Australia’s trade surplus widened more than 22% to A$0.99 billion in August, after having

shrunk unexpectedly by a staggering 48% in July. The August trade surplus came ahead of market expectations of A$0.88 billion, with a rise in exports and practically no change in imports. The nation’s trade surplus is widely expected to narrow marginally to A$0.875 billion in September. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its official bank rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25% at its September meeting. Although the committee continued with the same level of monetary stimulus, it mentioned that some withdrawal seemed likely over the next few months.

November 7: RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5% at its October meeting. There had been speculations of an increase in the rate, following interest rate hikes by other nations. Policymakers pointed out, however, that the monetary conditions in other developed nations had eased much more than in Australia since the financial crisis. Expectations are now for the RBA to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at its November meeting.

 

November 8: Australia Business Confidence (October), China Balance of Trade (October)

Australia’s business confidence rose meaningfully to 7 in September, after having plummeted to 5 in August, and came in better than the estimate. Expectations are for the index to remain at 7 in October. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus narrowed again in September to US$28.61 billion, from US$41.99 billion in August, and missed expectations of a US$ 39.50 billion surplus. The September figure represented the smallest trade surplus since March.

 

November 9: New Zealand Interest Rate Decision, China Inflation Rate (October), UK Balance of Trade (September)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark cash rate unchanged at record low of 1.75% at its September meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at its November meeting. In another part of the world, China reported its inflation rate at 1.6% in September, following 1.8% in August. Expectations are for the rate to rise back to 1.8% in October. The UK’s trade deficit widened to £5.63 billion in August, from £4.24 billion in July, and marked the largest trade deficit since September 2016.

 

 

 

November 14: UK Inflation Rate (October)

The UK inflation rate stood at 3% in September, up only slightly from 2.9% in August, but representing the highest rate since April 2012. Expectations are for the inflation rate to be above 3% in October.

 

November 15: Australia Consumer Sentiment (November)

Australia’s consumer sentiment rose 3.6% to 101.35 in October, breaching the 100 mark for the first time since November 2016. A reading below 100 (which it has been through in2017) indicates pessimists outnumbering optimists, while a reading above 100 means pessimists were outnumbered by optimists. The forecast for November calls for a decline in the index to around 97.

 

November 17: Australia Unemployment Rate (October)

Australia added 19,800 jobs in September, after having added 53,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 5.5% in September, from 5.6% in the previous month. The market consensus for job adds stands at 15,000 in October, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.5%.

 

November 25: New Zealand Balance of Trade (October)

New Zealand’s trade deficit stood at NZ$1,235 million in August, following a trade surplus of NZ$85 million in July. The negative gap was significantly higher than the market estimate of a NZ$825 million deficit.

 

November 25: US GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

The US economy grew 3.1% in the second quarter, beating market expectations of 3% growth and representing the strongest growth rate since the first three months of 2015. The country’s GDP growth rate is widely expected to decelerate to around 2% in the third quarter.

 

 

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for Australia appeared first on Forex.Info.

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for Australia appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Flat Ahead of Fed Statement, Poloz Testimony

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2881, down 0.05% on the day. In economic news, today’s highlight is the FOMC rate statement, with no change expected in the benchmark interest rate. Later in the day, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz  testifies before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce in Ottawa. The US will also release two key events – ADP Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, the key event is US unemployment claims.

On Tuesday, Canada’s GDP, which is released monthly, contracted in August. This disappointed the markets, which had expected a small gain. The decline of 0.1% was the first drop since October 2016. The soft reading extended the Canadian dollar’s misery, pushing USD/CAD above 1.29 and coming close to a 10-week low. The currency has endured a miserable October, slipping 3.5 percent.

BoC Governor Stephen Poloz testified before a parliamentary committee on Tuesday, and his remarks did not exude confidence in the Canadian economy. Poloz said that the country is at a “crucial” spot in the economic cycle, noting concern over soft inflation and wage growth, and high household debt. Poloz said that the BoC will be cautious before raising interest rates. The markets are not expecting any moves before 2018, with the odds of a rate hike in December at just 21 percent.

Janet Yellen will be on center stage on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve issues its monthly rate statement. The Fed will almost certainly refrain from a rate hike, so analysts will be combing through the rate statement, looking for clues about future rate moves. The markets have priced in a December rate hike at a whopping 96 percent, and the markets are looking for clues with regard to rate policy in 2018. This will depend to a large degree on the new chair of the Fed, who will take over from Janet Yellen in February. The two front-runners, John Taylor and Jerome Powell, have very different stances on monetary policy, which has created some suspense ahead of President Trump’s nomination. Trump is expected to choose the new head before departing for Asia at the end of the week. Powell is expected to continue Yellen’s incremental approach to raising rates, while Taylor is a proponent of much higher rates, as underscored in his “Taylor Rule”, which calls for higher rates when inflation is high or the labor market is at full capacity.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (November 1)

  • 8:15 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 202K
  • 9:30 Canadian Manufacturing PMI
  • 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.5
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.5
  • 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate -0.1%
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 68.0
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.5M
  • All Day – Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.5M
  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <1.25%
  • 16:15 BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks

Thursday (November 2)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 235K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 1, 2017

USD/CAD Wednesday, November 1 at 7:50 EDT

Open: 1.2818 High: 1.2915 Low: 1.2812 Close: 1.2881

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2598 1.2701 1.2778 1.2943 1.3032 1.3126

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted small losses early in European trade

  • 1.2778 is providing support
  • 1.2943 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.2778 to 1.2943

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2778, 1.2701, 1.2598
  • Above: 1.2943, 1.3032 and 1.3126

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, long positions have a slender majority (51%), indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD takes next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The post USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Flat Ahead of Fed Statement, Poloz Testimony appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

Bullet Report: Top 5 Updates to Know About the Market Today – November 1st

1. The New Zealand dollar was the biggest mover in an otherwise quiet morning session due to strong domestic jobs data. The kiwi gained as much as 1% to trade at 0.6922 after the latest labour market statistics showed wages grew and unemployment fell to the nine year low of 4.6%.

 

2. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting later today, but investors are waiting for any indications that it will resume raising rates next month as expected, and the timing of any rate hikes in 2018.

 

3. Sterling was trading near two-week highs, with GBP/USD at 1.3290 amid expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade on Thursday.

4. The euro was steady at $1.1643, still nursing its losses after tumbling to a three-month low of $1.1574 on Friday, a day after the ECB said it will extend its bond purchases into September 2018.

5. Ahead of US employment data on Friday, there are views that the US economy is gaining momentum as consumer confidence jumped to a near 17-year high last month, with households upbeat about the labour market and business conditions, which could increase consumer spending and boost the economy in Q4.

The post Bullet Report: Top 5 Updates to Know About the Market Today – November 1st appeared first on Forex.Info.

The post Bullet Report: Top 5 Updates to Know About the Market Today – November 1st appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

November 2017 Market Outlook for EU

Although the Eurozone economy gained momentum over the past few months, uncertainty looms with the European Central Bank gearing up to begin unwinding its monetary stimulus. Amid this uncertainty, there is growing interest in the market-moving indicators for November.

 

November 2: Germany Unemployment Rate (October)

Germany’s adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.6% in September, from 5.7% in August, the lowest since in 1990. The rate is expected to remain at 5.6% in October. The nation’s seasonally adjusted jobless total declined by a staggering 23,000 to 2.506 million in September, following a decline of 6,000 in August and coming in significantly better than the market expectations of a 5,000 drop. The estimate for October stands at a decline of 5,000.

 

November 3: US Balance of Trade (September), US Non-Farm Payrolls (October)

America’s trade deficit narrowed to US$42.4 billion in August, from US$43.6 billion in July. Expectations are for a substantial widening of the deficit to US$45 billion in September. Also, US non-farm payrolls fell sharply by 33,000 in September, significantly below market expectations of a 90,000 gain. The market consensus stands at an optimistic 300,000 increase in October.

 

November 9: Germany Balance of Trade (September), UK Balance of Trade (September)

Germany’s trade surplus expanded marginally to €20 billion in August, following an increase to €19.5 billion in July. Meanwhile, the UK’s trade deficit widened to £5.63 billion in August, from £4.24 billion in July, significantly higher than market expectations of a £2.80 billion gap and marking the largest trade deficit since September 2016.

 

November 14: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3), Germany GDP Growth (Q3), Germany Economic Sentiment (November), Italy GDP Growth (Q3), UK Inflation Rate (October)

The Eurozone economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, following an expansion of 2% in the first quarter. Expectations are for growth to accelerate marginally to 2.4% in the third quarter. Germany recorded GDP growth of 2.1% in the second quarter and is likely to report 2.2% growth for the third quarter. Economic Sentiment in the country rose to 17.6 in October, although missing market expectations of a reading of 20. Meanwhile, Italy’s economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter and is widely expected to accelerate to 1.7% in the third quarter. Also, the UK is expected to report a rise in its inflation rate to 3.2% in October, from the 3% reported for September.

 

November 15: US Inflation Rate (October)

Inflation rate in the US rose to 2.2% in September, from 1.9% in August. The rate is widely expected to revert to 1.9% in October.

 

November 16: France Unemployment Rate (Q3)

France recorded an unemployment rate of 9.5% in the second quarter of 2017, down marginally from 9.6% in the prior quarter, and representing the lowest jobless rate since the first quarter of 2012. Moreover, the nation’s employment rate rose to 65.3%, the highest recording since 1980. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.5% in the third quarter.

 

November 22: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)

The Eurozone consumer confidence index rose to -1 in October, from -1.2 in September, representing the highest reading since April 2001. Expectations are for a slight decline in the index to almost -1.1 in November.

 

November 23: Germany Manufacturing PMI (November)

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) declined slightly to 60.5 in October, from 60.6 in September, which was the largest increase in manufacturing since April 2011. The market consensus for November calls for a decline to below 60.

 

November 24: Germany Business Climate Index (November)

Germany’s Business Climate Index declined to 115.2 in September, from 115.7 in August, and came in significantly below market expectations of a reading of 116. Despite the disappointment, estimates continue to be pegged above the 116 mark for November.

 

November 28: UK GDP Growth (Q3)

The UK economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter of 2017, missing expectations of 1.7% growth and below the 1.8% recorded in the prior quarter. There are wide speculations of further deceleration in the third quarter to 1.4%.

 

November 29: Eurozone Business Confidence (November), Germany Inflation Rate (November), US GDP Growth (Q3)

Eurozone’s Business Climate Indicator rose to 1.34 in September, after inching up to 1.08 in August. The September reading handsomely beat expectations and was the highest since April 2011. The market consensus calls for declines in October and November to reach a reading below 1. Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation rate came in at 1.8% in September, unchanged from the August reading. The country’s inflation rate is widely expected to remain the same in October and November. In another part of the world, the US economy grew 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017 and the rate is expected to decelerate to 2% in the third quarter.

 

November 30: Eurozone Unemployment Rate (October)

The Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 9.1% in August, remaining unchanged from the July and June recordings. The rate is expected to remain at the same level in September and October.

 

 

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for EU appeared first on Forex.Info.

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for EU appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

November 2017 Market Outlook for EU

Although the Eurozone economy gained momentum over the past few months, uncertainty looms with the European Central Bank gearing up to begin unwinding its monetary stimulus. Amid this uncertainty, there is growing interest in the market-moving indicators for November.

 

November 2: Germany Unemployment Rate (October)

Germany’s adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.6% in September, from 5.7% in August, the lowest since in 1990. The rate is expected to remain at 5.6% in October. The nation’s seasonally adjusted jobless total declined by a staggering 23,000 to 2.506 million in September, following a decline of 6,000 in August and coming in significantly better than the market expectations of a 5,000 drop. The estimate for October stands at a decline of 5,000.

 

November 3: US Balance of Trade (September), US Non-Farm Payrolls (October)

America’s trade deficit narrowed to US$42.4 billion in August, from US$43.6 billion in July. Expectations are for a substantial widening of the deficit to US$45 billion in September. Also, US non-farm payrolls fell sharply by 33,000 in September, significantly below market expectations of a 90,000 gain. The market consensus stands at an optimistic 300,000 increase in October.

 

November 9: Germany Balance of Trade (September), UK Balance of Trade (September)

Germany’s trade surplus expanded marginally to €20 billion in August, following an increase to €19.5 billion in July. Meanwhile, the UK’s trade deficit widened to £5.63 billion in August, from £4.24 billion in July, significantly higher than market expectations of a £2.80 billion gap and marking the largest trade deficit since September 2016.

 

November 14: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3), Germany GDP Growth (Q3), Germany Economic Sentiment (November), Italy GDP Growth (Q3), UK Inflation Rate (October)

The Eurozone economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, following an expansion of 2% in the first quarter. Expectations are for growth to accelerate marginally to 2.4% in the third quarter. Germany recorded GDP growth of 2.1% in the second quarter and is likely to report 2.2% growth for the third quarter. Economic Sentiment in the country rose to 17.6 in October, although missing market expectations of a reading of 20. Meanwhile, Italy’s economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter and is widely expected to accelerate to 1.7% in the third quarter. Also, the UK is expected to report a rise in its inflation rate to 3.2% in October, from the 3% reported for September.

 

November 15: US Inflation Rate (October)

Inflation rate in the US rose to 2.2% in September, from 1.9% in August. The rate is widely expected to revert to 1.9% in October.

 

November 16: France Unemployment Rate (Q3)

France recorded an unemployment rate of 9.5% in the second quarter of 2017, down marginally from 9.6% in the prior quarter, and representing the lowest jobless rate since the first quarter of 2012. Moreover, the nation’s employment rate rose to 65.3%, the highest recording since 1980. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.5% in the third quarter.

 

November 22: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)

The Eurozone consumer confidence index rose to -1 in October, from -1.2 in September, representing the highest reading since April 2001. Expectations are for a slight decline in the index to almost -1.1 in November.

 

November 23: Germany Manufacturing PMI (November)

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) declined slightly to 60.5 in October, from 60.6 in September, which was the largest increase in manufacturing since April 2011. The market consensus for November calls for a decline to below 60.

 

November 24: Germany Business Climate Index (November)

Germany’s Business Climate Index declined to 115.2 in September, from 115.7 in August, and came in significantly below market expectations of a reading of 116. Despite the disappointment, estimates continue to be pegged above the 116 mark for November.

 

November 28: UK GDP Growth (Q3)

The UK economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter of 2017, missing expectations of 1.7% growth and below the 1.8% recorded in the prior quarter. There are wide speculations of further deceleration in the third quarter to 1.4%.

 

November 29: Eurozone Business Confidence (November), Germany Inflation Rate (November), US GDP Growth (Q3)

Eurozone’s Business Climate Indicator rose to 1.34 in September, after inching up to 1.08 in August. The September reading handsomely beat expectations and was the highest since April 2011. The market consensus calls for declines in October and November to reach a reading below 1. Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation rate came in at 1.8% in September, unchanged from the August reading. The country’s inflation rate is widely expected to remain the same in October and November. In another part of the world, the US economy grew 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017 and the rate is expected to decelerate to 2% in the third quarter.

 

November 30: Eurozone Unemployment Rate (October)

The Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 9.1% in August, remaining unchanged from the July and June recordings. The rate is expected to remain at the same level in September and October.

 

 

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for EU appeared first on Forex.Info.

The post November 2017 Market Outlook for EU appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

Ringgit view

 KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1): Ringgit trades near a one-week high after energy prices climbed to the strongest in over two years, burnishing sentiment towards Malaysian assets.

* USD/MYR little changed at 4.2335; touched 4.2280 Tuesday, lowest since Oct 23

** Support 4.2095, 4.1825, 4.1733; resistance 4.2440, 4.2535, 4.2594

** Brent crude falls 0.4% after reaching US$61.41 Tuesday, highest since July 2015

* MYR is the number 2 trade in Asia after KRW amid expectations for more fund inflows into the region as developed central banks such Bank of Canada adopt a dovish stance, says Stephen Innes, a Head of Trading  at Asia

** “Malaysia’s budget, although a complete election-inspired one, remained fiscally prudent which looks good in foreign investors’ eyes and rising oil prices are great for the ringgit,” says Innes

* Pension fund EPF sees MYR’s weakness as a tactical opportunity and is of the view that the currency would strengthen on a long-term structural basis, according to CEO Shahril Ridza Ridzuan

* Weak ringgit is prompting Standard Life Aberdeen to look at interesting Malaysian stocks that have underperformed this year, says Hugh Young, head of Asia at the company

* 10-year bond yield climbs 3bps to 3.95% after sinking 12bps Tuesday

** Gains in the bond market were spurred by a rebound in US Treasuries, according to Maybank Investment Bank

* ANZ recommends investors in Malaysian bonds to stay overweight cash and turn neutral on duration from underweight following a recent correction in the market, according to note Tuesday

* Fitch sees downside risk to govt’s optimistic revenue projections as its 2018 GDP growth forecast of 5.0%-5.5% assumes strong recent momentum will be maintained

* Nikkei Malaysia October manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs 49.9 September

* Political hurdles are imminent in Malaysia with a general election due by August 2018, HSBC economists including Joseph Incalcaterra wrote in note Tuesday

** Opinion polls suggest that the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition may have lost some support over the years, but should nonetheless secure a majority of seats in the upcoming election

* Police probe on state investment company 1MDB is still lacking evidence, MalaysiaKini news website reports citing AG Apandi Ali

Edge Markets via Bloomberg

The post Ringgit view appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

Breaking News: Bitcoin surges to a new all-time high after CME announcement

What was looking like a pretty standard sideward trading day for the market, Bitcoin suddenly decided to wake everyone up as once again it skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $6348.60.

The reason for the sudden move was the announcement by the CME Group that they are planning to launch bitcoin future contracts by the end of the year.    According to CNBC news, Terry Duffy the CEO of the CME Group said that “given the increasing client interest in the evolving cryptocurrency markets, we have decided to introduce a bitcoin futures contract”.

CME Group was not the first to announce their intention of launch a bitcoin future contract, the Chicago Board Options Exchange beat them to it by releasing a statement back in August about their intention to launch their own bitcoin coin future contract by either the end of this year or in early 2018.

However, the CME Group is the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace and it comprises of four key exchanges, the CME, BOT, NYMEX and Comex.

As well as that this announcement by the CME today, indicates that the real players in the market are beginning to take bitcoin seriously and there could be more that follow and start to embrace it. If that was to happen many analysts believe that higher highs for the alt-coin could keep on coming.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is currently trading at $6395.90.

 

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/cme-plans-to-launch-bitcoin-futures-by-year-end.html

 

 

The post Breaking News: Bitcoin surges to a new all-time high after CME announcement appeared first on Forex.Info.

The post Breaking News: Bitcoin surges to a new all-time high after CME announcement appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading

DAX Steady on Mixed Eurozone Data

The DAX has inched higher in the Tuesday session. Currently, the DAX is at 13,229.50, up 0.09% on the day. On the release front, Eurozone data was a mix. CPI reports missed their estimates, while Preliminary Flash GDP beat the forecast. On Wednesday, the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve, which will release its monthly rate statement.

The eurozone released key inflation and GDP data, and the results were lukewarm. CPI Flash Estimate edged down to 1.4%, shy of the forecast of 1.5%. Core CPI Flash Estimate dipped to 0.9%, short of the estimate of 1.1%. There was better news from Preliminary Flash GDP, which remained unchanged at 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.5%. Unemployment continues to head lower, dropping to 8.9%. This is the lowest level since March 2009. The ECB has announced that it will begin tapering its asset purchase program, as the eurozone economy has rebounded in 2017. Still, inflation remains persistently below the ECB’s target of around 2 percent. The asset purchase program has been extended to April 2018, but the ECB could implement an extension if economic data tails off or if inflation fails to move upwards.

Euro-Area Inflation Unexpectedly Slows as Economy Powers On

In Germany, retail sales rebounded in impressive fashion, gaining 0.5% after two straight declines. On an annualized basis, retail sales gained 4.1%, indicative of strong consumer spending. Germany Preliminary CPI edged down to 0.0%, shy of the forecast of 0.1%. This follows two consecutive readings of 0.1% and points to continuing low inflation in an otherwise robust economy.

The uncertainty and tension remain at fever pitch in Catalonia. The central government has dissolved the Catalan government and parliament, after imposing direct rule on Catalonia. The Catalan government declared independence just before Madrid invoked Article 155 of Spain’s constitution. The Spanish government has drawn up charges of rebellion against Catalan President Carles Puidgemont, but he has skipped town, and is reportedly in Belgium. It remains unclear what Puidgemont will do next – he could request political asylum or even declare a government-in-exile. Elections have been slated for December 21, and two parties from Puidgemont’s coalition have declared they will participate in the election. With Catalans split down the middle on independence, this saga is likely to continue for some time.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday (October 31)

  • 6:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.5%. Actual 1.4%
  • 6:00 Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 1.1%. Actual 0.9%
  • 6:00 Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.6%
  • 6:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 9.0%. Actual 8.9%

Wednesday (November 1)

  • 14:00 US FOMC Statement

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Tuesday, October 31 at 7:55 EDT

Open: 13,228.50 High: 13,255.38 Low: 13,214.60 Close: 13,229.57

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

The post DAX Steady on Mixed Eurozone Data appeared first on Forex news forex trade.

Continue Reading