BAML looks at the trends in BoP data

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on BoP trends
Bank
of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research has updated its Balance
of Payments (BoP) analysis to gauge medium-term FX trends, arguing
that such n exercise is important at this stage where markets move
beyond political risks, and fundamentals are taking over as the key FX
drivers. 

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FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 MAY

GBP/USD

As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. Despite a hint at the possible faster rate increase of interest rates in the future, the bulls were disappointed by the decline in the forecast for GDP growth this year from 2% to 1.9%.

EUR/USD

The pair continues to fall as market participants react to more aggressive actions of the FED. Despite the fact that the ECB continues its massive QE program, yesterday’s comments by Mario Draghi allude to the fact that the ECB’s position will become more hawkish in the near future.

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